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Nia-Malika Henderson has a serious question: “How do you sell America on a recession?” Because encouraging us all to buy backyard chicken coops doesn’t seem to be working. Nor are angry statements on Truth Social about how “The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!” In all honesty, it feels like we’re the ones getting ripped off. Nobody, including wine moms, wants to drink counterfeit Champagne from the Midwest.
More than half of US voters believe tariffs will harm the economy. “Americans are increasingly worried about the US economic outlook and expecting price hikes for housing, college, gas and groceries,” Nia writes. Although John Authers says the latest inflation figures offered “a positive surprise for a change,” the good times may not last for long. “With the trade war looking as if it might drag on, policymakers will have to keep a watchful eye on consumer and market inflation expectations,” Jonathan Levin writes.
As it is, a small iced chai in Park Slope costs $9.96, which could be about as much as you have left in your 401(k). And President Donald Trump’s tariffs — billed as a bump in the road to economic paradise — are going to make matters worse, especially for the cohort they’re supposed to help: American men.
For decades, the labor market has been shifting away from men, explains Allison Schrager. “There are fewer jobs in manufacturing and more jobs in fields that have historically skewed female, such as education and health care,” she writes. “The administration’s logic seems to be that if the US re-creates the manufacturing-heavy economy of the 1950s and ‘60s, when the prime-male labor force participation rate reached 97%, more men will get back to work. But these are not the 1960s — and the blame doesn’t lie with trade.”
Instead, the blame lies with technology and lack of training. “The solution to this problem is not tariffs. It is eliminating the many regulations that make it hard to build, move and change jobs,” Allison argues. And guess what could facilitate that transition to prosperity? A labor union! Too bad, as Kathryn Anne Edwards says, that there aren’t many left, thanks to decades of union-busting: “Representation is less now than 1934, the year before the right to organize was enshrined into law by the National Labor Relations Act.” Unfortunate, considering a staggering 70% of Americans approve of unions. That’s way higher than Trump’s ratings for his handling of the economy!
Remember Erik Prince? The guy who founded Blackwater who also happens to be the brother of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos? Well, he’s back, and he wants to help Trump deport millions of undocumented immigrants before the 2026 midterms. His genius plan — which was sent to Trump’s team but has not been implemented — involves spending $25 billion to erect “processing camps” on military grounds and a “small army” of private citizens who have the executive green light to make arrests.
I can’t even begin to count all the red flags here, but one jumps out: We already have quality control issues with border patrol! It’s hard to believe that adding private contractors into the mix would help the situation:
In the near future, Trump is expected to invoke wartime authority — i.e. the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — to kick his mass deportation effort into high gear. He’ll almost certainly get challenged on this in court; detained migrants would be stripped of all due process — no asylum interview or legal proceeding — and unceremoniously deported. It’s a step toward achieving Trump’s goal of tossing 11 million undocumented immigrants out of the country.
But even with private contractors and/or wartime powers, is 11 million actually realistic? Patricia Lopez has her doubts: “Achieving that number would require a mind-boggling 229,000 removals per month over the course of his term,” she writes. To give you an idea of how that compares to what’s happening on the ground, Border Czar Tom Homan netted only 20,000 for all of February.
That’s not to say nothing is happening under Homan’s watch: “Trump’s obsessive energy on immigration has resulted in some clear progress,” Patricia notes. “Border crossings have fallen to historic lows, in part because Trump shut down the asylum process that had refugees camping out at the southern border.” Plus, the new administration has been savvy with its focus on crime: “Aiming squarely at removing criminal migrants may not result in large numbers — since most undocumented immigrants don’t commit crimes — but is one that most US residents would support.”
Still, even if ICE were to deport all crime-committing migrants in this country, Patricia says it’d amount to just 5.7% of Trump’s 11 million goal. That’s why the most prudent thing to do may be just to drop the whole idea of mass deportation — and corporate America might even be happy about it. This week, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that Trump’s harsh immigration policy could severely hinder farmers and construction workers. It’s that kind of outspokenness that Adrian Wooldridge says other CEOs ought to adapt. “Businesspeople are the only people with the personal heft and institutional power to act as a restraint on Trump,” he writes.
Just because American men are getting the short end of the stick doesn’t mean there aren’t winners in this trade war: “The White House’s on-again-off-again tariffs are presenting Asia with a gift,” writes Daniel Moss. “Officials have previously been torn between juicing growth and supporting their currencies.” Now, they don’t have to choose! “The yen is clawing its way back from the lowest level in more than a generation and the South Korean won’s slide has abated. The Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht have steadied after a difficult patch. The rupiah has strengthened after falling toward 16,600 per dollar.” Given all that, it’s the perfect time to prioritize growth.
What would you do with $19 billion? Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, may be asking himself that very question after his holding company CK Hutchison inked a blockbuster port deal with BlackRock. I know what I’d do with the money — hire Taylor Swift to serenade me at my birthday party — but Shuli Ren says the billionaire may want to use it to repair his reputation, and not in a Swiftie sort of way. You see, Li’s once-pristine track record was marred in 2015 when minority shareholders blocked a proposal to buy out another subsidiary. “This is the perhaps the last chance the 96-year-old will have to make amends with disgruntled shareholders,” she writes. Although Shuli says the family should stick to tried-and-true stock buybacks, David Fickling has a greener vision in mind: “Renewables and nuclear will provide every kilowatt-hour of additional electricity in the world between now and 2027,” he writes. He calls it “an unmissable opportunity for one of the world’s most experienced players in power generation, transmission and distribution.”
A shutdown may be averted, but at what cost? — Bloomberg’s editorial board
Actually, banks do not want an atmosphere of lawlessness. — Matt Levine
Don’t condemn lawyers over their clients. — Stephen L. Carter
Intel’s new CEO is saying all the right things. — Dave Lee
Ukraine needs intelligence more than weapons. — James Stavridis
Lawsuits have haunted Bayer ever since it bought Monsanto. — Chris Hughes
The US has a long history of ugly peace deals. — Andreas Kluth
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Notes: Please send Champagne — the good stuff!!! — and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.
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Jessica Karl is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of the Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter.
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